Zhang Wuchang blog daily on Tuesday published a column this week will be moved to the National Day (October 1, Thursday) published, entitled “State 60 Thoughts”, so stay tuned!

“Strategy of money” and “New Words of selling orange” these two books took me a lot of effort, more than 1000 two-part article, select one, over and over again to consider what papers to keep and which articles to be eliminated is very troublesome things, sometimes inevitably some of the articles appeared to be repeated. I can not point out that “money”, a book which is forced afford to spare. Friends First, select the currency mentioned in the article, about 200. The results of my first choice is to use about 96, followed here, plus there by some long ago gave up decided to withdraw to another, and finally they think should not be cut is 85. “The new sales were made of orange,” a little easier, but it is also coming and going to raise his flag variable. I like the “preamble” in the article referred to in ten groups, in fact, the last is divided into 12 groups, but forget the “10″ to “12.” Second edition will have the opportunity to amend.

I think that the “currency” and “new selling orange” These two books will be there in the market for a long time, because basically there is no time limit. In my experience that you can sell books for a long time depends mainly on student customers, because every year new students grew up to the appropriate read my work.

(This blog administrator’s note: “The new sales were made of orange,” has been sold in Dangdang: http://product.dangdang.com/product.aspx?product_id=20776549)

Biden got it wrong the second sentence, is said not long ago. He saw the U.S. government to spend big hand the unemployment rate continues to rise, said, “everyone wrong.” District in the next, whether that employment effects of a large hand very little to spend countless scholars. Keynesian multiplier effect of spending (multiplier
effect), for undergraduate students from the time I have heard estimated at two to a professor two years ago is estimated at 1.5 to a few months ago a professor estimated 0.8 below, to another that may be negative . Are famous too.

July 8, “Economic Journal” headlines, Obama said the U.S. unemployment rate near 10 percent, considered together with code to save the market. Experts wonder he launched a few months ago that the program will be bound by the following eight per cent unemployment rate, today was to be higher than 10%. A few months ago I wild guess, write down the U.S. unemployment rate will rise to 10 percent or more this year. Although wild guess, but I put his name to sign up. Approximate inference is that some figures do not have to examine in-depth research. Compared to October last year, said Lin Yifu, I read over eight Chinese insurance easier, I immediately released on the 24th of the month, “Zero is also difficult! . ” If Beijing does not immediately relax the liquidity big hands, followed by a large soft of a new labor contract law, it launched a “4000000000000″ policy (2 trillion per year is eight per cent of national income), negative growth is certain.

I was three days before the incident, Lehman Brothers (September 12, 2008) published “Beijing should immediately remove the macro-control! “What is not because the data in hand, or made further investigation and study, but casual observation of their own, remember the historical experience, adequate grasp of theory, see the market situation and wrong, a pen to paper on the green light. Think they go wrong, put the name of risking to go. If I had said, according to Beijing immediately hand cut interest rates two to San Li, China’s economy will improve. They do not listen, probably because they do not I be so sure. Accurately infer the economy depends mainly on transparent grasp of the simple theory, historical experience, remember more and clear, objective reasoning, fast and can take into account the many. In addition, the essential observation is feeling good on the economy. Lack of the latter, economics is a waste of time. Friedman repeatedly said so. Keynes once said, the economy is shallow knowledge, but those who learned through little.

November 9 last year, Xinhua News Agency reported from January 1 this year, Beijing will launch within two years of 4 trillion yuan in the “additional costs” to save the financial crisis and disaster. I have no objection, that the multiplier effect mentioned above could be higher than one. Two reasons. One is betting that Beijing is planning the project, mostly to do with planning and needed infrastructure, but earlier and faster. In this way, the waste will not be great investments. Secondly, the new Labour Contract Law and unemployment soaring, many people in their hometowns, the Government will help start ahead of infrastructure. Readers should know that the Keynesian multiplier effect of the general assumption that many of the unemployed.

Today, China’s economy clearly a turning point, but I do not see, “4000000000000″ function. A turn for the better reason, is not strictly enforce the new labor law, the RMB’s exchange value will go down a bit and, most importantly, the central bank to relax faster money supply, the market response is also fast. Earlier this year, play now, the yuan currency rise even stronger, leading to the recovery of the real estate market significantly. Such a situation, and today the state is not seen in advanced. U.S. Federal Reserve Board to relax the money supply was much higher than China’s staggering, but the real estate market is still a dark cloud. The key is not subject to the financial impact, far from the United States so many toxic assets.

Now we have to ask: Keynesian policy of spending money to rescue the market results? The answer is two-fold. First, from China, “4000000000000″ policy measure, we do not see any significant positive effect. Revive the housing market is due to relaxation of liquidity, not what is brought up of infrastructural projects, while the industry shows signs of recovery, mainly large soft on the effects of the new labor law. Infrastructure projects at the current stage of industrial disadvantage today. The general consumer market did not rise significantly. Having said that, we can not say that, “4000000000000″ policy has no effect on the economy, but is difficult to assess. Lead to waste of resources are there, but casual observation say seriously.

Second, look at the United States to spend large hands rescue the effect of Keynesian is obviously failed. If photos can be seen, the Obama economic team of people of talent there and not on the unemployment rate is expected to revitalize the program, compared with the actual unemployment rate, is introspective. The twenty-first century macroeconomics is s going to?

Read “Economic Journal,” July 8 headlines, Obama’s “crisis team” member of the Tyson (L.
Tyson) speech, that the United States spent 787 billion U.S. dollars less than disaster relief, to be overweight. She is clearly adhere to the belief in Keynesian spending. I may be too sensitive to Tyson’s comments makes me feel a big hand to pay the United States, China, “4000000000000″ policy a little more or less adverse effects. She believes that the effectiveness of China, because Beijing to spend money faster, while the U.S. spent too slowly. She added that money plus yards, the United States should go to infrastructure investment in that regard. She does not seem to think of China’s infrastructure investment is already set down the project, not a hastily invention. She did not seem to know the major events of China’s property market recovery is very important, but certainly not “4000000000000″ effect. She also seems to ignore that China is not a democratic vote, making the state bailout, which not only can be spent on flowers, more importantly, can not say no to spend spend, you can see the momentum was wrong and think twice. The latter, to some extent Beijing is to do so. In other words, Beijing points out the cake can be withdrawn at any time.

That Keynesian, because 40 years ago my friend Axel
Leijonhufvud published “On
Keynesian Economics and the Economics of Keynes “was the masterpiece that Keynesian economics and Keynesian economics are two different things I am. The former Harvard forward, Axel considered undesirable, while the latter is a first-class economics. Big hand to pay for the Keynesian multiplier effect is. I can not agree with Axel’s point of view, because I can not read Keynes’s “General Theory.” Is a lively topic of heated debate 40 years ago. In the past, teachers Alchian (Armen
Alchian) extremely talented, and I admitted that he had not read “The General Theory,” but time after time for Axel of the “General Theory”, get it. To this end I have also read “General Theory” or do not understand! Gauss later accepted to my comfort: “You can not read, and can not be without problems.”

That was decades ago the past was. At that time I think the theory of price control Keynes enough, but their study be led by the Kjeldahl macroeconomics, although the exams, the place can be quite a few buses disagree. Teachers are afraid to ask me questions. Dr. tried, I no longer meddle in macroeconomics. This makes a lot of outsiders think that I do not know. I also do not understand. I am a person who can not see the emperor’s new clothes.

Within the so rumors: that economists economist Zhang Wuchang; Zhang Wuchang great price theory; Zhang Wuchang not understand macro! Oddly, for decades, I have to explain macroeconomic phenomena and concluded that although the occasional mistake, in general than I do all the “macro” experts more criterion. Not a quasi-point is that many potential, and I spend is always a simple price theory. To cite just recently released here in Japan for decades on the fortunate and the unfortunate, all involved are macroscopic phenomena. You may disagree with my analysis, but you can not agree, and I have to all undergraduate students can learn theory of prices, there is no other. No one can because I think I was wrong on the analysis simple. Scientific guild regulations that you object to my analysis to provide your own theories or hypotheses. 30 years ago, Reuben
Kessel said to me: If you have nothing, necessarily lose Bureau (You
cannot beat something with nothing).

Readers may wish to refer to macro-analysis of the Japanese over the years many scholarly articles. Model lots of dense regression statistics. For me, the explanatory power is absolutely zero knowledge, it is embarrassing.

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“The New York Times” columnist Paul Krugman pointed criticism of China’s monetary policy. Whether people agree or not, his view that the RMB has once again become the focus of world attention. Will Old Mr. Chang’s comment?

A:

October 17, 2009 in Kunming, I speak after the newspaper in general there is no misunderstanding, probably because enough spoke brilliantly. I decided to write down from memory to the speech, will be published as the “Strategy of money,” the finale of the article. Does not know that was about to write, three friends coincidentally came Krugman on October 23 in the “New York Times” published a column entitled “China out of tune.” Master of the text because of grams and the District of Kunming, said the next closely related, therefore, decided to mix up the two handsome look.

I seldom criticize his family’s view of the article, traditionally do not like the text on the curse, although we think that if they do, the text on the power of it is written in a supremely, I can. G master of the wording of the text mean, frivolous attitude, right and wrong, hostility clear, do not see a scholar of the pen, the so-called economic analysis which I have not the slightest agreement. To this end, the elderly made a temper. To write the above article unrestrained, a pen to paper to write over 4000 words. Next Tuesday (Nov. 3) published here. Busy reader to look at it when the time.

Saying there is a Shenzhen shopping seafood restaurant, said Yan, to home, the name and I am concerned, the taste is also designed by me. I have no interest in this age of the business, but still want to do as young, fun look at the total want to play. Shenzhen Yan came home to China’s culture as its theme, providing an early age I love Cantonese food. Feng Shui not working, the elegant shopping Bacheng expires, somehow almost all the tenants are gone, what advertising and so on, do not say forget.

Stories from the “nest to the Home,” the name start with. Two years ago I thought of the name, do not intend to use, but then a friend of mine actually recommended the same name, so clever, we decided to use the. Said about me, because my mother’s name is Su Yanqi, father’s name is Zhang years ago, “Yan” after “to”, named Martin came home like that. English name says it? Knack, I think of Capistrano, is more relevant than the “translation” of the. In Yan to the Home of menus on the restaurant I wrote this explanation:

“A small town in southern California, were Capistrano, small, town with a church, very old. 100 years ago found that every year some swallows flew on March 19 the church, Gouliu months, then then fly away. The March 19 is said to swallow the habit of returning at least several hundred years, but over the years, whenever the church to see the first swallows return, they sounded the bell, and the bell rings, the small event to celebrate the town for several days, tourists gather. Many years ago, someone wrote a poem entitled When
the Swallows Come Back to Capistrano’s song, many people today still sing.

“Those who swallows from Argentina, took off a year from February 18, flying 30 days, over 2000 feet in altitude flying 7500 miles. This phenomenon of nature no one can explain, can see far more than the Creator, the secular .

“Song Renyan with Uncle” Huan Xisha “word it this way: a new word wine glass, the weather last year, the old pavilion. When the sun sets back? Flowers fall to, familiar to swallow to return. Small park in Hong path wandering alone . “

If sub-2. Jiangsu has a place called the Lake, including one called the lotus swing, there mu lotus, lotus is said to be Earth’s most places. Six years ago I went to see the hi of five years ago to return and photograph two mornings, published “The Dutch rural sights,” and that book of pictures. I love the countryside, in the lotus swing contracted a number of fish ponds, some of the lotus pond, and later bought a small piece where the unique land, where they expected to build a small house, occasionally Tao had about life.

Headache coming. Friends hope that I can arrange a small investment to bring about the possible development of Lotus swing tourism. We think the construction of a small hotel only a few rooms, the cost does not appear high. Wrong. I can not accept this man is not comfortable housing, then the cost skyrocketed. Readers should know that this place finishes, although the lotus scenery beautiful, but every year in addition to the lotus blossom season, look around no one, some scattered around the farm is not worldly air about her. A few months ago my friend said there: his life repeatedly to be a loss for the fun of a small investment, small hotel lotus swing the investment is not small, is added to the employment of staff, the loss can be sure, but I can only find time each year there three days, attraction is a good time too expensive.

This time, Feng Shui has a soul, lotus swing suddenly become the investment opportunity to earn some money! I bet the reader how to imagine not. Points it teaches you how to make money.

First, fish ponds six years ago, the occasion of contract, the wholesale price of the fish about a pound dual Pentagon, asked people to keep a certain loss. Today, eight dollars per catty wholesale, abacus too.

Second, do not know who invented a few years ago, raising crabs in the pond with lotus plants co-exist without disturbing each other, so the little crab larva into the pond to.

3, Lake area rich in crayfish, the highest yield in the world. This tiger prawn less, I do not think the taste. But that can not laugh, this is the famous crayfish, as a valuable food in the United States six years ago, a small lobster Lake 1-2 yuan a pound wholesale, the huge market demand today is 10 yuan more than the.

Miracle began. We put the seedling into a crayfish pond farming, farmers are smart invention. The effects were fantastic, the raising of large crayfish was aquamarine, is a top boutique, business buy, offer 20 yuan per catty. Many farmers also raise crawfish pond, but our special multi-output, is particularly fine, farmers were amazed. I do not know what happened. The method according to farmers, small lobster harvest is in May after the drugs kill off the rest, cultivating lotus root, lotus root to the September harvest, then feeding lobster. I see that the pond is the lobster pond of God, for fear of killing the lobster drugs will affect the ecological environment of the pond, immediately stop. Thinking that the lobsters do not want to Lotus.

4, the most amazing stories you course? You can not guess the. Decoration of lotus swing is a small hotel, there are swallows flying nest two months ago, but more and more and more to prevent the fitting out. Capistrano’s world-renowned thought the story, I immediately stop any damage to the swallows, Yanchao a Freeze – swallow presence is seasonal, will leave soon. They choose to shelter buildings are preferred, and only God knows how they choose is likely to come again next year, the church might like Capistrano as the future return on time each year for hundreds of years. Is the world-renowned Capistrano swallows miracles will swing in the vast land of the lotus repeat it? Opportunity I’m afraid not, the possibility exists.

Lotus swing that naming the original guest house “home listening to the Netherlands”, we immediately changed to “swallow come home.” And Shenzhen restaurant with the same name, but feng shui is different too. Old business eyes immediately light up. If the swallows return in 2023, I will build the hotel on top of a small bell pavilion, not the Western church bell, with the ancient Chinese-style temple bell, Zhang wrote, “midnight bell to passenger ship” that each year only to see the first the swallows return to the ring bell, and then a big banquet, so that neighboring farmers free to eat s fill. This method and his party, pass the opening to visitors booming business, you can claim it. I will convince the people concerned, if the reward side swallows return every year to make lotus swing of Yan to home earn money to donate to all the children to the nearby farm for educational purposes also. Swallow to help educate children, not very interesting?

Write to you, I think some things, some of the conditions, also thought swallow, could not help but think of Su’s “Butterfly in Love.” Good word, is the genius of document:

“Flowers fade Can Hong Tsing Hang small, swallows flying, the green water people around. Branches with little wind Liu Min; World where no herb.

“Swing the wall wall Road, outside the wall to pedestrians, the wall beautiful woman laughed. Laughter is not heard this gradually becoming quiet; sentimental been relentlessly angry.”

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He’s an example of the text of the book:
Applications: nomadic food – starting when fully equipped

Early human history, nomadic feeding is a major economic activity. Human nomads and tribal fishing and hunting, or picking fruits and vegetables in the way of access to food from the surrounding environment. Some of the activities of modern logic is similar to the nomadic foraging. For example, street vendors hawking can be said to be seeking customers.

All those who are facing a nomadic foraging important choice is how to allocate time to find food and find other useful resources. Imagine a wandering in the desert nomads, the desert with nothing but the occasional few small oasis. Any oasis in the food are gradually depleted, so the nomads eventually move on. Their economic problems but when the road again?

Assume that all the oasis are the same, and equal distance from each other. If the nomads have a fixed number of hours each quarter for the nomadic foraging, it is to maximize the average output of all the oasis y / t, where t is the road of time and stay in each time block and an oasis.

When the average maximum amount of time, the margin is equal to the average amount. Therefore, the optimal residence time has the following characteristics: an oasis in the day stay on the marginal product is equal to the average yield of all Oasis (retention time and road time included). Its economic meaning is: when the whole season where the average daily amount of food available has reached the maximum, then if an oasis of marginal product below the nomads in general can get the average yield is not worth in this oasis the stay there.

The friends do not understand is: nomadic objective should be possible to derive maximum output from the oasis, so why not seek the margin to 0 (in which case the margin is not equal to the average amount of), why this example the answer is to seek to become the largest average (marginal amount equal to the average amount of time)?

Interested friends may wish to not see me the following answer, think about if your face this question, how to answer.

——————
My answer is as follows:

I carefully looked at the examples, in fact, it requires not a single oasis maximize the output y (Note that the average yield of the book to describe what this value, because the book is t mean, not by the number of oasis Average; while the y is not you, so for the total output of all the oasis), but the maximum total production of all the oasis. This is not the same thing, because in the time fixed under the constraints, the number of the oasis is limited, need to select the variables, in an oasis spend too much time to make the block to maximize the output of the oasis, it may cause can be fixed time to reach the oasis within a number so small that the total output of all the oasis is less.

I use a simple mathematical model to re-describe this example, you will easily understand. In fact, a few values here are as follows: Oasis of the total output Y and the output of each block of oasis y, the total time T, and spent time on each piece of oasis t, the number of oasis n. For example the assumption that Oasis are the same, therefore: Y = ny,
T = nt, and T is a fixed constant. These are reflected in the equation of constraint, maximizing objective Max Y, the Max ny. Max is finished
(T / t) y, t and y are variables, T is constant. According to maximum principle, that is the pursuit of this objective function of the total derivative is 0. Because T is constant, can be eliminated, that is to maximize the objective function is Max
y / t, is the average amount of maximum demand.
——————-
Reply comments of some friends led to a very good discussion, also mentioned that posted here for readers to reference:
chenwei9802010-03-27
09:09:46

I think from this example the concept of a marginal meaning. Constraints is an oasis but do not have time, behavior is the maximum output of each block of oasis; the time to add constraints that each piece of oasis in the marginal product of the largest unit of time; then added and the animals physical constraints, namely, people , livestock production in unit time, the maximum marginal; set aside time for a moment the concept, consider the general equilibrium, increase understanding of people on the environment, animals adapt to capacity enhancement, the marginal increase in production began in the cost curve downward arc of the first section, Other factors that constraint, the marginal production has declined, and foraging behavior has fixed.

Blogger back :2010-03-27
09:59:07
Oh, this is a good way of learning.
In fact, Hershey to the textbook, if you thoroughly understand it, then you are in the economics of the “technical” aspects will be very strong. This “technology” does not mean the abuse of mathematics in economics is the kind of get very complicated mathematics, but mathematics itself is very simple, but the point is not easy, how hard is hard to skillfully put to use very simple mathematical is not a simple economic phenomenon to explain more clearly refined.

Professor Zhang Wuchang not mathematics, it is his superior thinking ability, no math to assist reasoning. We ordinary people do, learn appropriate mathematics, but in fact not difficult to learn, should learn to be deep, in fact, is how to use simple mathematics is an artful expression of the economic phenomenon. In this regard, Hodgson’s book provided a lot of very good example. Many “applications” and “example” and not rush to read in first and answers, or provided under the footnotes to see the original source of the article, the first to think of to put it answers are neither out. Not complex algebra, but sometimes use more complex geometry. – The blog administrator
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SINA Netizen 2010-03-27
23:57:31

Bo tube to answer without looking at themselves first to the next:
I think any people who seek maximum benefits, we must consider the marginal cost, but also the marginal revenue. That farmers seeking to maximize production cost is ignored, the opportunity cost is the nomadic herdsmen, the average amount of feeding, when the marginal revenue to less than the average amount of time, migrated to other Oasis is the best choice.

Blogger back :2010-03-28
09:19:58

Generally in the direction you think is right, but the opportunity cost of what is wrong. What to look at the opportunity cost constraints, where time constraints are fixed, so the time spent on each oasis is limited, it has become a source of opportunity cost. If you have a friend like the first reply as hair spread out to think about, you can also consider the case of a limited number of the oasis, it has become the source of the oasis is the opportunity cost.

From here you can associate with the “economic explanation” about the world? By the way, is the “economic interpretation” in Volume II on “interest theory” of the place! Not have a talk about where people should plant trees when felling it? Inside breath under different conditions on several answers, in fact the answers are all there, including the law, that is a resource (factor) is infinite, then the rental value of the element is zero; the use of certain elements there is a cost (cost), then calculate the optimal time to tear down trees to make sure the rate of return to compensate for the rental value of the use of such elements. With the fact that the analysis here is logically connected! – The blog administrator

The second difficulty facing our economy, yes they are the officials and members generally do not believe that China will continue to reform, or they assume they see that China will stay in their see. They are two views is a big mistake.

First, they do not believe that China will lift foreign exchange control. Ten years ago, I at that time as the Financial Secretary Donald Tsang said that China will sooner or later to lift foreign exchange controls, if they do, Shanghai will soon become a world-class financial center, Hong Kong will face a strong competitor, grab a lot of financial business to Shanghai. Has brother replied that it was not easy for Beijing to lift exchange controls. I know a lot of influence on policy where people think so. It seems today that most of them is. However, my view is that sooner or later to lift exchange controls Beijing, Shanghai will sooner or later become an important international financial center, Hong Kong match for the competition. Reasons I explained before. I have long believed that China will in the not too distant future to lift exchange controls, because since the mid-80s, I told a friend in Beijing about the matter. They generally agreed with my analysis, but here and there they are a little scruples. It now appears that Shanghai will become an international financial center, not wait until the 2020 Beijing said.

The second important development in Hong Kong, China ignored the difficulties is that they do not believe that Beijing will abolish import duties. They believed that the imports will always be a free port, and China will never be. So Hong Kong will become a lasting imported goods to domestic persons to provide local, long-lasting to make their shopping money. High rent shopping malls in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, higher than 4 times. Hong Kong’s monthly sales are generally more than 8,000 yuan, compared with about 6 times higher than in Shenzhen. More headaches in Hong Kong is considering launching the minimum wage. To face this problem is that if China abolished import duties on consumer goods, then the so-called freedoms are no longer the trip to Hong Kong from mainland China, Hong Kong and Shenzhen will become a shopping paradise. That is the question: Beijing import duty if the cancellation of consumer goods, Hong Kong’s shopping malls rent will fall, while the introduction of the minimum wage in Hong Kong under the person receiving benefits will soar.

The above, I think the assumption that the Chinese person in Hong Kong will never open exchange controls, it will not greatly reduced or withdrawn import duties, these ideas are stupid.

(Reply to this topic End)

Second, the early release Divine
China Hotel
Cobbler girl’s story – to say a few words of Chinese youth

Third, the fallacy of Law
Ridiculous “law” – A Response to anchor discussion
On the wrong track, “Feng Shui school”
Game theory controversy
Message costs and clustering Law
Deceive law: salt water plants and freshwater crabs
The River Law
Learn from China’s development of the law of wages

Fourth, the wandering streets
Rain money era
Shallow depth look at the issue from the observation
Costs from the Jade Market in message
The story of chewing gum
Play fakes are stupid act?
Economic analysis of cattle speculation

5, dictatorship of the game
Monopoly may be the result of competition – say a few words for Microsoft
Dictatorship, democracy, the market – and how to Allcorn ocean lesson
“Big” and “gambling” with “Xi Gong” different
Shanghai next week, no traffic jams
Guangzhou Qiao design Empty City

6, the chess game of international trade
Inspiration day trade
Quota: The former car from time to Kam Down?
Exports from the economic analysis of duty
Three further soldiers Bo
Japan’s experience to see the Earth from the unfortunate situation of integration
Inward it anyway!

7, from farmers to swallow
Chinese farmers have to deal with the issue calmly
A Talk on and their wives
Expert unlucky tenant in mind
Chinese farmers from the garden to see the output of the cost – and then comment the new labor law
Swallow said feng shui

8, land use
Does not save the industry, how to save the property market zai?
Pork price and the price: A Review of China’s land policy

9, the labor contract to exploit
Evacuated to the theory of the firm from Guilin
Troubled by the new labor law
Omen of disaster – three of New Labor Law
The true meaning of labor contract
View from the new labor law to wear beads
China’s labor was scarce and precious than my son
The new labor law theory and the encroachment
Beijing to make use of county labor law dealing with international competition

10, the archaeological record
Master archaeological record of economic
Time to open the First Emperor’s tomb
Economic Analysis of the First Emperor’s tomb
No Definition of learning: I can not go to Xian with a hoe
Long story
“Thousand Character Classic” Imagination test

11, Revelation
Inspiration tsunami
Human extinction from global warming that
End of the world good article

12, the conclusion chapter

An apology to “financial center: Beijing waiting for? “May 12, 2009 after the release of a head with the brain share the same appreciation for (smile), that is very convincing, but nearly all online customer support. Is a rare friend in Beijing could see that the text is integrated for a few years to my thinking on monetary and exchange rate.

Say “rare” because I do not know made a large comprehensive, to get the Friends of the advice, his repeated scrutiny, only that he was right, with no slipping through the net. In fact, early to write the text, but that more change, I am afraid the reader is unknown. Recently for some things, but also to the Book Fair Results published in a book to catch, out of the text, inadvertently write out this synthesis. Friends say this more clearly.

Originally planned to the end of the text as a cluster of articles, but Mr. Zhou Xiaochuan on May 15 issued a number of “opening up” of speech, the two friends said that I am on the 12th by the impact of the article. I read Mr Zhou’s remarks not think so. Mr Chow has his own opinion, but this time I think he is right to put their minds at a big stone. Liberalization of exchange controls, engage in international financial center, Zhou Xiaochuan, the central figure is no doubt that if he did not understand, or disorder to lead to disastrous consequences. The Chow’s remarks, I do not agree that “the letter reported,” the headline: “Zhou Xiaochuan: Hong Kong Cooperation and build a financial center.” Do not agree, but that is a political need only say that. Proper economic analysis are: cooperation, of course, competition, of course, the operation of the market will lead to these acts, not more government control, but Mr Zhou said the “with each other”, and the market will naturally deal with. Government to control, disrupt the operation of the market, there will be big trouble. Should control the matter, should not have control of the tube, is folly, although I understand that these acts are usually not really stupid, but some of the interest groups behind the scenes action.

Throughout the years, Mr. Zhou’s achievements, abusive terms no longer say, I think he is inclined to deal with the problem to go to the level of complexity. This is wrong. The following is my handling international financial center of China the simple handling of the view:

(A) the release or discharge of all exchange controls are easy: public, open, it wants to. Even with this release to make the international exchange rate to float freely, but we first have to RMB safety first before the next anchor. Historically there have been numerous open exchange controls rather than to exchange rate fluctuations example, to deal with foreign exchange reserves, short-term can be long-term can be a disaster.

(B) of the printed face value of RMB 500 yuan notes, do not forget to put up a number of English words, only three letters printed RMB should be enough. A few years ago I raised these points, the central bank may have long run the.

(3) we first have to anchor the yuan before the next fixed exchange rate to float freely to all. Do not use foreign currency as the anchor. I’ve made to a basket of goods is the best choice for the anchor. This is why the basket of goods, the proportion of what is central and important work.

(D) of the open exchange controls, to put out an unlimited number of RMB, in return for the Exchange. With a basket of goods as the anchor, not only outside of the only good thing is difficult to stir up trouble, the central bank’s foreign exchange income will be very substantial. Can earn a lot, but the central bank not to seek them, but to the profit (for) to the exchange in a separate reserve fund, and the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves available separately. This independent fund of money to make investments, to avoid financial or foreign investment. Bet to focus on in-kind, such as mineral or mineral deposits and the like. This separate fund exists to increase the confidence of outsiders on the RMB, because they know that this fund is used to maintain the yuan’s value.

(E) to allow all foreign financial institutions to China opening, and not carry anything to do with games. The key issue is not qualification enough foreign capital, or capital enough, but investors have the right to adequate protection. China’s practice of contracting out the responsibility for so many years, can not know what to do, how to deal with the outside is a matter outside of Beijing to design their own financial responsibility. Gaussian (domestic called Coase) view of the right to define the key. He said that the right to define the use of resources, used for the benefit of financial also suitable. Remember to handle the responsibility and rights defined in definition should be simple, be clear.

(Vi) To become an international currency RMB brand, be based on the international community’s trust. Person to Die to serve the so-called surface, rack system he had lost. As the anchor to a basket of goods, more importantly, China’s productive forces. Nankai University in 2002, I said, the real support of the renminbi is hardworking and intelligent standard of Chinese. This regard, we have more than 1.3 billion, the highest in the world, to how to play it more than 1.3 billion in productivity is important to work in Beijing.

(7) If necessary, Beijing may wish to establish a foreign exchange on gambling funds, speculators make some money to do good deeds in the international arena.

(8) heard Mr Zhou Xiaochuan liked to employ foreign consultants, which I oppose. I think not familiar with China’s economic system is not eligible for any suggestions. The recent financial crisis has demonstrated, America’s financial experts really know how to make money for themselves, but on to the important financial and economic system of the combined operation, they knew nothing about the past in! China’s economic reform is China’s own contribution has out together and engage in financial centers to believe they are smart.

Many people would envy the position of Mr. Zhou Xiaochuan. His current job could be done for the country a very important thing. International financial center right, well, no doubt a milestone in China’s economic reform. Today is a golden opportunity for thousands of once, missed, the historical evaluation of the future will be very embarrassing.

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I have strongly recommended the 11-year-old piano genius beef, soon in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, three recitals. As follows. Shanghai: May 28 evening half past seven, the Shanghai Oriental Art Center (21-54253120, www.ticket2010.com); Guangzhou: May 31 evening 8 o’clock, Symphony Hall of Guangdong Xinghai Concert Hall (20 -37612209,37612206,37612207); Shenzhen: June 1 evening 8:00, Shenzhen Theatre, Grand Theatre (755-82113333, www.szyanchu.com).