Blog administrator announcement:
Zhang Wuchang blog daily on Tuesday published a column this week will be moved to the National Day (October 1, Thursday) published, entitled "State 60 Thoughts", so stay tuned!
On "Strategy of Money," this book, the simplified version of the domestic and Hong Kong Traditional exactly the same, that the number and content of the article, like articles. Differentiated areas, only complicated transfer some simple specifications, such as certain punctuation are different, and translation are different, that is all. Some readers wonder, published in China over the scruples of certain words can not say. So far, I have not felt these constraints. Not entirely without constraint, but to this day I have not felt. Appears in words, China is open than before.
"Strategy of money" and "New Words of selling orange" these two books took me a lot of effort, more than 1000 two-part article, select one, over and over again to consider what papers to keep and which articles to be eliminated is very troublesome things, sometimes inevitably some of the articles appeared to be repeated. I can not point out that "money", a book which is forced afford to spare. Friends First, select the currency mentioned in the article, about 200. The results of my first choice is to use about 96, followed here, plus there by some long ago gave up decided to withdraw to another, and finally they think should not be cut is 85. "The new sales were made of orange," a little easier, but it is also coming and going to raise his flag variable. I like the "preamble" in the article referred to in ten groups, in fact, the last is divided into 12 groups, but forget the "10" to "12." Second edition will have the opportunity to amend.
I think that the "currency" and "new selling orange" These two books will be there in the market for a long time, because basically there is no time limit. In my experience that you can sell books for a long time depends mainly on student customers, because every year new students grew up to the appropriate read my work.
(This blog administrator's note: "The new sales were made of orange," has been sold in Dangdang: http://product.dangdang.com/product.aspx?product_id=20776549)
In today's political figures, the U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is my preferred, but unfortunately the topic of disaster relief spending in the United States, he obviously wrong two sentences. The first sentence is a few months ago, when the U.S. government launched nearly eight hundred billion dollars to revive the economy, Biden said, "All the economists agreed to do so." These words have been economists criticized to death. At that time, the Government's own troops, the strongly in favor of spending big hand may only Krugman an economist (inferred numerous gentleman, exceedingly wrong, but the name remains). Another seems to have no objection to the Senmu Johnson (Walking current smash hit is a Keynesian textbook, which he is to send controversial). On the other hand, I received the famous column from the measure, against the big hand to spend money to rescue the market economists public.
Biden got it wrong the second sentence, is said not long ago. He saw the U.S. government to spend big hand the unemployment rate continues to rise, said, "everyone wrong." District in the next, whether that employment effects of a large hand very little to spend countless scholars. Keynesian multiplier effect of spending (multiplier
effect), for undergraduate students from the time I have heard estimated at two to a professor two years ago is estimated at 1.5 to a few months ago a professor estimated 0.8 below, to another that may be negative . Are famous too.
July 8, "Economic Journal" headlines, Obama said the U.S. unemployment rate near 10 percent, considered together with code to save the market. Experts wonder he launched a few months ago that the program will be bound by the following eight per cent unemployment rate, today was to be higher than 10%. A few months ago I wild guess, write down the U.S. unemployment rate will rise to 10 percent or more this year. Although wild guess, but I put his name to sign up. Approximate inference is that some figures do not have to examine in-depth research. Compared to October last year, said Lin Yifu, I read over eight Chinese insurance easier, I immediately released on the 24th of the month, "Zero is also difficult! . " If Beijing does not immediately relax the liquidity big hands, followed by a large soft of a new labor contract law, it launched a "4000000000000" policy (2 trillion per year is eight per cent of national income), negative growth is certain.
I was three days before the incident, Lehman Brothers (September 12, 2008) published "Beijing should immediately remove the macro-control! "What is not because the data in hand, or made further investigation and study, but casual observation of their own, remember the historical experience, adequate grasp of theory, see the market situation and wrong, a pen to paper on the green light. Think they go wrong, put the name of risking to go. If I had said, according to Beijing immediately hand cut interest rates two to San Li, China's economy will improve. They do not listen, probably because they do not I be so sure. Accurately infer the economy depends mainly on transparent grasp of the simple theory, historical experience, remember more and clear, objective reasoning, fast and can take into account the many. In addition, the essential observation is feeling good on the economy. Lack of the latter, economics is a waste of time. Friedman repeatedly said so. Keynes once said, the economy is shallow knowledge, but those who learned through little.
November 9 last year, Xinhua News Agency reported from January 1 this year, Beijing will launch within two years of 4 trillion yuan in the "additional costs" to save the financial crisis and disaster. I have no objection, that the multiplier effect mentioned above could be higher than one. Two reasons. One is betting that Beijing is planning the project, mostly to do with planning and needed infrastructure, but earlier and faster. In this way, the waste will not be great investments. Secondly, the new Labour Contract Law and unemployment soaring, many people in their hometowns, the Government will help start ahead of infrastructure. Readers should know that the Keynesian multiplier effect of the general assumption that many of the unemployed.
Today, China's economy clearly a turning point, but I do not see, "4000000000000" function. A turn for the better reason, is not strictly enforce the new labor law, the RMB's exchange value will go down a bit and, most importantly, the central bank to relax faster money supply, the market response is also fast. Earlier this year, play now, the yuan currency rise even stronger, leading to the recovery of the real estate market significantly. Such a situation, and today the state is not seen in advanced. U.S. Federal Reserve Board to relax the money supply was much higher than China's staggering, but the real estate market is still a dark cloud. The key is not subject to the financial impact, far from the United States so many toxic assets.
Now we have to ask: Keynesian policy of spending money to rescue the market results? The answer is two-fold. First, from China, "4000000000000" policy measure, we do not see any significant positive effect. Revive the housing market is due to relaxation of liquidity, not what is brought up of infrastructural projects, while the industry shows signs of recovery, mainly large soft on the effects of the new labor law. Infrastructure projects at the current stage of industrial disadvantage today. The general consumer market did not rise significantly. Having said that, we can not say that, "4000000000000" policy has no effect on the economy, but is difficult to assess. Lead to waste of resources are there, but casual observation say seriously.
Second, look at the United States to spend large hands rescue the effect of Keynesian is obviously failed. If photos can be seen, the Obama economic team of people of talent there and not on the unemployment rate is expected to revitalize the program, compared with the actual unemployment rate, is introspective. The twenty-first century macroeconomics is s going to?
Read "Economic Journal," July 8 headlines, Obama's "crisis team" member of the Tyson (L.
Tyson) speech, that the United States spent 787 billion U.S. dollars less than disaster relief, to be overweight. She is clearly adhere to the belief in Keynesian spending. I may be too sensitive to Tyson's comments makes me feel a big hand to pay the United States, China, "4000000000000" policy a little more or less adverse effects. She believes that the effectiveness of China, because Beijing to spend money faster, while the U.S. spent too slowly. She added that money plus yards, the United States should go to infrastructure investment in that regard. She does not seem to think of China's infrastructure investment is already set down the project, not a hastily invention. She did not seem to know the major events of China's property market recovery is very important, but certainly not "4000000000000" effect. She also seems to ignore that China is not a democratic vote, making the state bailout, which not only can be spent on flowers, more importantly, can not say no to spend spend, you can see the momentum was wrong and think twice. The latter, to some extent Beijing is to do so. In other words, Beijing points out the cake can be withdrawn at any time.
That Keynesian, because 40 years ago my friend Axel
Leijonhufvud published "On
Keynesian Economics and the Economics of Keynes "was the masterpiece that Keynesian economics and Keynesian economics are two different things I am. The former Harvard forward, Axel considered undesirable, while the latter is a first-class economics. Big hand to pay for the Keynesian multiplier effect is. I can not agree with Axel's point of view, because I can not read Keynes's "General Theory." Is a lively topic of heated debate 40 years ago. In the past, teachers Alchian (Armen
Alchian) extremely talented, and I admitted that he had not read "The General Theory," but time after time for Axel of the "General Theory", get it. To this end I have also read "General Theory" or do not understand! Gauss later accepted to my comfort: "You can not read, and can not be without problems."
That was decades ago the past was. At that time I think the theory of price control Keynes enough, but their study be led by the Kjeldahl macroeconomics, although the exams, the place can be quite a few buses disagree. Teachers are afraid to ask me questions. Dr. tried, I no longer meddle in macroeconomics. This makes a lot of outsiders think that I do not know. I also do not understand. I am a person who can not see the emperor's new clothes.
Within the so rumors: that economists economist Zhang Wuchang; Zhang Wuchang great price theory; Zhang Wuchang not understand macro! Oddly, for decades, I have to explain macroeconomic phenomena and concluded that although the occasional mistake, in general than I do all the "macro" experts more criterion. Not a quasi-point is that many potential, and I spend is always a simple price theory. To cite just recently released here in Japan for decades on the fortunate and the unfortunate, all involved are macroscopic phenomena. You may disagree with my analysis, but you can not agree, and I have to all undergraduate students can learn theory of prices, there is no other. No one can because I think I was wrong on the analysis simple. Scientific guild regulations that you object to my analysis to provide your own theories or hypotheses. 30 years ago, Reuben
Kessel said to me: If you have nothing, necessarily lose Bureau (You
cannot beat something with nothing).
Readers may wish to refer to macro-analysis of the Japanese over the years many scholarly articles. Model lots of dense regression statistics. For me, the explanatory power is absolutely zero knowledge, it is embarrassing.
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Asks:
"The New York Times" columnist Paul Krugman pointed criticism of China's monetary policy. Whether people agree or not, his view that the RMB has once again become the focus of world attention. Will Old Mr. Chang's comment?
A:
October 17, 2009 in Kunming, I speak after the newspaper in general there is no misunderstanding, probably because enough spoke brilliantly. I decided to write down from memory to the speech, will be published as the "Strategy of money," the finale of the article. Does not know that was about to write, three friends coincidentally came Krugman on October 23 in the "New York Times" published a column entitled "China out of tune." Master of the text because of grams and the District of Kunming, said the next closely related, therefore, decided to mix up the two handsome look.
I seldom criticize his family's view of the article, traditionally do not like the text on the curse, although we think that if they do, the text on the power of it is written in a supremely, I can. G master of the wording of the text mean, frivolous attitude, right and wrong, hostility clear, do not see a scholar of the pen, the so-called economic analysis which I have not the slightest agreement. To this end, the elderly made a temper. To write the above article unrestrained, a pen to paper to write over 4000 words. Next Tuesday (Nov. 3) published here. Busy reader to look at it when the time.
Very reluctant to write this article because of the business for sale with their advertising too. But I have a wonderful story to say, the opportunity for the elephants of. Avoid arousing suspicion can not, unless we do not say. Having thought before, or that speak.
Saying there is a Shenzhen shopping seafood restaurant, said Yan, to home, the name and I am concerned, the taste is also designed by me. I have no interest in this age of the business, but still want to do as young, fun look at the total want to play. Shenzhen Yan came home to China's culture as its theme, providing an early age I love Cantonese food. Feng Shui not working, the elegant shopping Bacheng expires, somehow almost all the tenants are gone, what advertising and so on, do not say forget.
Stories from the "nest to the Home," the name start with. Two years ago I thought of the name, do not intend to use, but then a friend of mine actually recommended the same name, so clever, we decided to use the. Said about me, because my mother's name is Su Yanqi, father's name is Zhang years ago, "Yan" after "to", named Martin came home like that. English name says it? Knack, I think of Capistrano, is more relevant than the "translation" of the. In Yan to the Home of menus on the restaurant I wrote this explanation:
"A small town in southern California, were Capistrano, small, town with a church, very old. 100 years ago found that every year some swallows flew on March 19 the church, Gouliu months, then then fly away. The March 19 is said to swallow the habit of returning at least several hundred years, but over the years, whenever the church to see the first swallows return, they sounded the bell, and the bell rings, the small event to celebrate the town for several days, tourists gather. Many years ago, someone wrote a poem entitled When
the Swallows Come Back to Capistrano's song, many people today still sing.
"Those who swallows from Argentina, took off a year from February 18, flying 30 days, over 2000 feet in altitude flying 7500 miles. This phenomenon of nature no one can explain, can see far more than the Creator, the secular .
"Song Renyan with Uncle" Huan Xisha "word it this way: a new word wine glass, the weather last year, the old pavilion. When the sun sets back? Flowers fall to, familiar to swallow to return. Small park in Hong path wandering alone . "
If sub-2. Jiangsu has a place called the Lake, including one called the lotus swing, there mu lotus, lotus is said to be Earth's most places. Six years ago I went to see the hi of five years ago to return and photograph two mornings, published "The Dutch rural sights," and that book of pictures. I love the countryside, in the lotus swing contracted a number of fish ponds, some of the lotus pond, and later bought a small piece where the unique land, where they expected to build a small house, occasionally Tao had about life.
Headache coming. Friends hope that I can arrange a small investment to bring about the possible development of Lotus swing tourism. We think the construction of a small hotel only a few rooms, the cost does not appear high. Wrong. I can not accept this man is not comfortable housing, then the cost skyrocketed. Readers should know that this place finishes, although the lotus scenery beautiful, but every year in addition to the lotus blossom season, look around no one, some scattered around the farm is not worldly air about her. A few months ago my friend said there: his life repeatedly to be a loss for the fun of a small investment, small hotel lotus swing the investment is not small, is added to the employment of staff, the loss can be sure, but I can only find time each year there three days, attraction is a good time too expensive.
This time, Feng Shui has a soul, lotus swing suddenly become the investment opportunity to earn some money! I bet the reader how to imagine not. Points it teaches you how to make money.
First, fish ponds six years ago, the occasion of contract, the wholesale price of the fish about a pound dual Pentagon, asked people to keep a certain loss. Today, eight dollars per catty wholesale, abacus too.
Second, do not know who invented a few years ago, raising crabs in the pond with lotus plants co-exist without disturbing each other, so the little crab larva into the pond to.
3, Lake area rich in crayfish, the highest yield in the world. This tiger prawn less, I do not think the taste. But that can not laugh, this is the famous crayfish, as a valuable food in the United States six years ago, a small lobster Lake 1-2 yuan a pound wholesale, the huge market demand today is 10 yuan more than the.
Miracle began. We put the seedling into a crayfish pond farming, farmers are smart invention. The effects were fantastic, the raising of large crayfish was aquamarine, is a top boutique, business buy, offer 20 yuan per catty. Many farmers also raise crawfish pond, but our special multi-output, is particularly fine, farmers were amazed. I do not know what happened. The method according to farmers, small lobster harvest is in May after the drugs kill off the rest, cultivating lotus root, lotus root to the September harvest, then feeding lobster. I see that the pond is the lobster pond of God, for fear of killing the lobster drugs will affect the ecological environment of the pond, immediately stop. Thinking that the lobsters do not want to Lotus.
4, the most amazing stories you course? You can not guess the. Decoration of lotus swing is a small hotel, there are swallows flying nest two months ago, but more and more and more to prevent the fitting out. Capistrano's world-renowned thought the story, I immediately stop any damage to the swallows, Yanchao a Freeze - swallow presence is seasonal, will leave soon. They choose to shelter buildings are preferred, and only God knows how they choose is likely to come again next year, the church might like Capistrano as the future return on time each year for hundreds of years. Is the world-renowned Capistrano swallows miracles will swing in the vast land of the lotus repeat it? Opportunity I'm afraid not, the possibility exists.
Lotus swing that naming the original guest house "home listening to the Netherlands", we immediately changed to "swallow come home." And Shenzhen restaurant with the same name, but feng shui is different too. Old business eyes immediately light up. If the swallows return in 2023, I will build the hotel on top of a small bell pavilion, not the Western church bell, with the ancient Chinese-style temple bell, Zhang wrote, "midnight bell to passenger ship" that each year only to see the first the swallows return to the ring bell, and then a big banquet, so that neighboring farmers free to eat s fill. This method and his party, pass the opening to visitors booming business, you can claim it. I will convince the people concerned, if the reward side swallows return every year to make lotus swing of Yan to home earn money to donate to all the children to the nearby farm for educational purposes also. Swallow to help educate children, not very interesting?
Write to you, I think some things, some of the conditions, also thought swallow, could not help but think of Su's "Butterfly in Love." Good word, is the genius of document:
"Flowers fade Can Hong Tsing Hang small, swallows flying, the green water people around. Branches with little wind Liu Min; World where no herb.
"Swing the wall wall Road, outside the wall to pedestrians, the wall beautiful woman laughed. Laughter is not heard this gradually becoming quiet; sentimental been relentlessly angry."
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